Ebraj Capital

Ebraj Capital is the place where I will share my ideas, beginning with my work on TechnipFMC. It showcases my portfolio and how I approach investing.

I believe in value investing, and finding opportunities to pay less than the intrinsic value of an asset. My goal is to learn from my mistakes and understand my good choices. I follow the idea that being curious and determined can get you to achieve great things.

TechnipFMC is performing better now than ever before as an independent company. Its order book has stayed flat for the past four quarters. At $78.31, the market is reflecting both of these factors, and obviously the war repercussions.

None of this argues that TechnipFMC is a poor business. It is the best-executing company in its peer group; it has the only net cash balance sheet among them, and the deepwater cycle it serves is structurally supported through the end of the decade. This note answers a narrower question: what price the company’s own numbers support once each judgement call is made explicit and priced.

On my numbers, that price is $46.22, and no combination of the four calls I am willing to make reaches $78.31. I would rather publish a valuation the model can actually produce than reverse-engineer one that agrees with the tape.

Read the full note

What could settle the debate? A few things could provide clarity: a second-half book-to-bill ratio above 1.15x, which would push FY2026 Subsea orders past $10.5 billion; keeping the Subsea EBITDA margin above 23% through FY2027 without relying on changes in business mix; seeing realized volatility keep the beta well below 0.80; or Brent crude staying above $85 through 2027, with future prices tracking the current spot price instead of falling back.