About
Six sleeves, one hundred thousand dollars, and a public record of what each one is doing. The prices update themselves. The reasoning does not.
Everything on this page is derived from one append-only ledger of deposits, fills and corporate actions. Nothing states what is held today; that is computed from what happened. A trade moves value between two lines of the same book rather than in or out of it, so activity this morning cannot reach backwards and improve last month.
Capital that has been earmarked but not deployed is carried at its full weight in cash, which means an unmade decision drags on the return exactly as it should. Notes stay up after they are wrong. The point is the record, not the result.
Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation. It is one book, run in the open.
Philosophy
A position should be defensible in writing before it is defensible in size. Every holding here has a note behind it, dated, and left up even when it turns out to be wrong.
A claim you cannot falsify is not a claim. Each note states what would have to be observed for the argument to be over, and says so before the position is opened rather than after it goes against us.
Measure honestly, including the parts that flatter no one. Capital that has not been put to work is carried at its full weight, so an unmade decision drags on the return exactly as it should.
The backlog stopped growing. The margin started working.
TechnipFMC is executing better than at any point in its history as a standalone company. Its order book has not grown for four quarters. At $78.31 the market is paying for both.
None of this is an argument that TechnipFMC is a poor business. It is the best-executing company in its peer group, it has the only net cash balance sheet among them, and the deepwater cycle it serves is structurally supported through the end of the decade. The question this note answers is narrower: what price the company's own numbers support once each judgement call is made explicit and priced.
On my numbers that price is $46.22, and no combination of the four calls I am willing to make reaches $78.31. I would rather publish a valuation the model can actually produce than reverse-engineer one that agrees with the tape.
What would end the argument. Second-half book-to-bill above 1.15x, taking FY2026 Subsea inbound past $10.5bn; Subsea EBITDA margin sustained above 23% through FY2027 without a mix explanation; realised volatility supporting a beta materially below 0.80; or Brent holding above $85 through 2027 with the out-year curve following spot rather than reverting.
Where it stands
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Book value
—Today
—Month to date
—Year to date
—Versus S&P 500
—Connect a data feed to plot the book against the S&P 500.
| Date | The book | S&P 500 | Spread |
|---|
The book line is a chain-linked time-weighted return, computed from the ledger: each day’s return is measured against the previous day’s value with deposits and withdrawals netted out, then the daily returns are compounded. That removes the effect of funding timing, so the line measures the decisions rather than the deposits. It starts at inception, because a book has no return before it has money. Cash and earmarked but un-deployed sleeves sit in the denominator at full weight rather than being quietly excluded, so an unmade decision dilutes the return exactly as it should.
The book
The book, by area
Research
The reasoning, dated, and left up when it is wrong
Data feed
The page reads committed daily closes from data/prices.json,
so it works for every reader with no key at all. A key adds live intraday
quotes on top, from
Twelve Data
— the free tier is enough. It is stored in this browser only and sent
nowhere except their API.